Which ski resorts reliably have snow when they open?

16 of the 53 destinations in the Opening-Week Snow Reliability Index were snow-ready in at least 8 of the last 10 opening weeks. 6 were snow-ready in all 10. They sit in 9 countries and their model cells run from 664 m to 3223 m, a spread of 2559 m, which is the first thing worth noticing: this is not a list of the highest mountains.

What they actually have in common

A storm track that is already running when they open. The list falls into four groups and each is a weather pattern rather than an altitude band: the Pacific coastal mountains of British Columbia, where Whistler Blackcomb scores 10/10 from a cell at only 664 m; the high inner Alps, where altitude and a reliable Atlantic feed work together; the Andes in the depth of the southern winter; and continental high Asia. Not one of them is on this list because of elevation alone, and several destinations with far higher cells are not on it at all.

The counter-example is worth stating plainly, because it is the reason the model-cell column exists. The highest cell in the whole index belongs to Telluride at 3820 m, and it scores 2/10. Height without moisture is just cold.

How to read a strong score honestly

Eight or nine out of ten is a base rate, not a booking guarantee. It says that in most of the last 10 years, at that grid point, in that week, the snow was there. It does not know about this year, and it does not know about the specific aspect, altitude or run you intend to ski. It is also a reanalysis rather than a measurement, so it can be too smooth over complex terrain and can miss a local storm. Where a resort's own long record contradicts a row here, the resort's record is the better evidence about that resort; this index is the better evidence about the comparison between them.

Every destination above links to its own file with live model conditions read at summit elevation, and the index carries the full season-by-season table for all 53.